A mere eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. As the in-form star swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, even as the positive results have accumulated.
Per the data, twice all season have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club which has put together 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – yet currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered more efforts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they will encounter in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.